How to Analyze Game Totals for American Football

Analyzing game totals is a systematic process of weighing offensive potential against defensive resistance. The goal is to find a discrepancy between the sportsbook's projected total and your own calculated expectation. This process requires a disciplined approach to data collection and an understanding of how different variables interact.

Offensive Synergy

Evaluate the chemistry between the quarterback and his primary receivers to predict explosive play potential.

Defensive Schemes

Understand if a defense plays a 'bend-but-don't-break' style, which often leads to more field goals than touchdowns.

Turnover Propensity

High turnover rates can kill drives instantly, making the Under a more attractive option despite a strong offense.

The Step-by-Step Analysis Framework

Start by establishing a baseline total based on the last five games of both teams. Then, adjust that number based on the specific matchup. If you are unsure how to structure your research, our Articles section offers detailed case studies on successful game total analysis.

Step 1: Calculate the average points scored and allowed by both teams.
Step 2: Adjust for the quality of opponents faced in previous weeks.
Step 3: Factor in the projected weather conditions and venue.
Step 4: Compare your projected total to the current market odds.

Crucial Insight: Always analyze the 'Points Per Possession' metric to see which team is more efficient regardless of the number of plays.