Comparing Value in Over Under Odds for Maximum Profit

Value betting is the secret to long-term profitability in sports wagering. In over under betting, value occurs when the probability of an outcome is higher than what the odds suggest. If you believe there is a 60% chance of the 'Over' hitting, but the odds imply only a 50% chance, you have found a value bet.

Implied Probability

Converting American or Decimal odds into a percentage to see what the bookmaker expects.

Line Shopping

Searching different books for a total of 43.5 instead of 44.5, which significantly changes the win probability.

The Value Gap

The difference between your projected score and the market's projected score.

Identifying Mispriced Totals

Mispriced totals often happen when the public overreacts to a single game. For example, if two teams had an unusually high-scoring game last week, the public may drive the total up, creating value for the Under. To see how we identify these opportunities, explore our High Accuracy Prediction Results.

Calculate your own 'fair' line before looking at the sportsbook's odds.
Compare the total to the historical average for those two teams.
Look for discrepancies between the point spread and the total.
Avoid betting on lines that have moved too far in one direction (over-correction).

Final Thought: Betting on the team you like is gambling; betting on the value you found is investing.